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Pennsylvania is one of seven key swing states likely to determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
Pennsylvania is one of seven key swing states likely to determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
Oct 29
ABC News Photo Illustration/Anna Moneymaker/BrandonBell/Getty Images/Adobe stock

Latest 538 Headlines

3 hours ago

How will young men vote in the 2024 election?

538’s G. Elliott Morris shares the latest polling data on how young men are voting.
3 hours ago
How will young men vote in the 2024 election?
3 hours ago

Does only 3% of America care about democracy?

The 538 team weighs in on a study about whether voters would flip parties if their candidate did something anti-democratic.
3 hours ago
Does only 3% of America care about democracy?
3 hours ago

How to look at early voting data responsibly

With the 2024 presidential election a week away, 538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss the relevancy of early voting data.
3 hours ago
How to look at early voting data responsibly
October 29

The 2024 election could hinge on Pennsylvania

Our final deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
October 29
Pennsylvania is one of seven key swing states likely to determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
October 28

2024 has fewer polls, but they are higher quality

How this year's polling compares with other recent elections.
October 28
The 2024 election cycle has fewer polls than past years, but data suggests that they're of higher quality.
October 28

In 2024, abortion rights initiatives are on the ballot in 10 states

Most would restore pre-Dobbs protections, but some advocates want to go further.
October 28
Signs supporting the Right to Abortion Initiative are displayed during a rally on Sept. 5, 2024 in Bozeman, Montana.
October 25

Which states have the most — and least — accurate polls?

Polls are more reliable in swing states, especially in the Sun Belt.
October 25
538 looks at polling reliability across the country – including the key battleground states.
October 24

Can Democrats win Arizona again in 2024?

Our sixth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
October 24
Arizona is one of seven key swing states likely to determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
October 24

The backlash against liberalism on college campuses | 538 Politics podcast

538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins talk about why some liberal academic ideas have been rejected by those with college degrees.
October 24
538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins talk about why some liberal academic ideas have been rejected by those with college degrees.
October 24

Is education the main dividing line in U.S. politics? | 538 Politics podcast

538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the Diploma Divide and whether college degrees have become a deciding factor in political affiliation.
October 24
538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the Diploma Divide and whether college degrees have become a deciding factor in political affiliation.
October 24

Does academia have a liberalism problem? | 538 Politics podcast

538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the influence of liberalism on college campuses.
October 24
538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the influence of liberalism on college campuses.
October 23

Republicans have a good shot at flipping the Senate

Introducing 538's forecast for the 2024 U.S. Senate elections.
October 23
Introducing 538's 2024 Senate forecast
October 23

How 538's 2024 Senate election forecast works

Here's everything that goes into this year's model.
October 23
How 538's new 2024 presidential election forecast works.
October 22

Republican opposition could slow the push toward electric vehicles

Policies to boost EVs are still popular, but losing support.
October 22
A customer charges his Tesla at a new Rove EV charging center on E. 17th Street in Santa Ana, Calif., on Oct. 9, 2024.
October 22

Nebraska's Senate election is surprisingly close

538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich look at recent polling in the close race for Nebraska’s Senate seat and why an independent candidate is doing so well.
October 22
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich look at recent polling in the close race for Nebraska’s Senate seat and why an independent candidate is doing so well.
October 22

The difference between undecided voters and swing voters

The 538 team considers whether voters who are undecided or voters who go back and forth between parties are the same thing.
October 22
The 538 team considers whether voters who are undecided or voters who go back and forth between parties are the same thing.
October 22

What percent of voters are truly undecided?

538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how many voters are genuinely up for grabs in the 2024 presidential election.
October 22
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how many voters are genuinely up for grabs in the 2024 presidential election.
October 21

What would happen if Harris and Trump tie in the Electoral College?

The race would go to Congress, where Republicans would likely have an advantage.
October 21
An Electoral College tie in the 2024 presidential election is unlikely but plausible.
October 18

Trump has gained in 538's forecast, but the election is still a toss-up

No matter what polls you look at, the 2024 election is super close.
October 18
A 538 Election Update for Friday, Oct. 18.
October 17

Wisconsin decided the 2020 election. How will it vote in 2024?

Our fifth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
October 17
The team at 538 takes a look at Wisconsin’s voting history and significance as a battleground state.
October 16

Why your vote matters in 2024

In the 2000 presidential race, the election came down to Florida, and the winner of the Sunshine State won by less than 0.1 percent of the vote.
October 16
October 16

The 2024 election could have a big impact on education policy

States are voting on school choice and more in 2024.
October 16
Several states are voting on education-related ballot measures in 2024.
October 15

Why voting patterns may shift this election

538’s Galen Druke asks The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik if analysts should be skeptical of data that shows a shift in voting patterns.
October 15
538’s Galen Druke asks The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik if analysts should be skeptical of data that shows a shift in voting patterns.
October 15

Could recent hurricanes affect the presidential election?

The 538 team discusses how hurricane season and election season collide, prompting it to become a political talking point this election cycle.
October 15
The 538 team discusses how hurricane season and election season collide, prompting it to become a political talking point this election cycle.
October 15

What the polls say about the 2024 election

538’s Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss the latest polling data showing an extremely close presidential race.
October 15
538’s Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss the latest polling data showing an extremely close presidential race.
October 15

How Hurricanes Helene and Milton could affect the 2024 election

Even if they don't change voters' minds, they could dampen turnout.
October 15
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks after she surveyed the damage from Hurricane Helene, in Augusta, Ga., Oct. 2, 2024. Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump speaks to the press about the impact of Hurricane Helene in Evans, Ga., Oct. 4, 2024.
October 14

How Georgia could swing back to the GOP in 2024

Our fourth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
October 14
Georgia is one of seven key swing states likely to determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
October 11

3 states could vote to mandate paid sick days

Paid leave and minimum wage policies have passed by ballot initiative before.
October 11
In this March 7, 2023, file photo, airport workers and supporters march during a rally at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Virginia. The group, organized by the Service Employees International Union, is demanding Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority mandate paid sick leave and employer-paid health care for airport service workers at Washington National and Dulles International Airport.
October 10

Trump is holding more campaign events than Harris

But it probably doesn't matter.
October 10
Former President Donald Trump has held a handful more campaign events than Vice President Kamala Harris recently – but fewer events likely won’t cost a candidate the election.
October 09

How redistricting could play a key role in the fight to control the House in 2024

North Carolina, New York, Alabama, Georgia and Louisiana redrew their districts.
October 09
Congressional redistricting in North Carolina, New York, Louisiana, Alabama and Georgia could affect the race to control the U.S. House of Representatives in 2024
October 03

How does a VP debate affect candidate favorability? | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how polls show a vice presidential debate has little to no impact on a candidate's favorability.
October 03
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how polls show a vice presidential debate has little to no impact on a candidate's favorability.
October 03

What issues matter to Americans? | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss how important voters rank climate change, national security and the Middle East ahead of the election.
October 03
538's Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss how important voters rank climate change, national security and the Middle East ahead of the election.
October 03

Does a VP debate impact how voters see presidential candidates?

The 538 team and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss whether a vice presidential debate can impact how viewers see presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
October 03
The 538 team and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss whether a vice presidential debate can impact how viewers see presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
October 01

How Harris is distancing herself from Biden on the economy | 538 Politics podcast

The 538 team discusses the strategic differences between the Harris campaign when addressing inflation and the economy compared to President Joe Biden.
October 01
The 538 team discusses the strategic differences between the Harris campaign when addressing inflation and the economy compared to President Joe Biden.
October 01

How a scandal in New York could affect the national House race

538's Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss allegations of possible violations of ethics rules by Rep. Anthony D'Esposito and what it means for which party wins the House.
October 01
538's Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss allegations of possible violations of ethics rules by Rep. Anthony D'Esposito and what it means for which party wins the House.
October 01

Will foreign policy impact the 2024 election? | 538 Politics podcast

The 538 team discusses conflict in the Middle East and whether it impacts whom Americans will cast their ballot for in November.
October 01
The 538 team discusses conflict in the Middle East and whether it impacts whom Americans will cast their ballot for in November.
September 27

Why you can't predict polling error in advance | 538 Politics podcast

The 538 team discusses how polls have underestimated Democratic and Republican support in the past and how unpredictable the direction of polling error can be.
September 27
The 538 team discusses how polls have underestimated Democratic and Republican support in the past and how unpredictable the direction of polling error can be.
September 27

The importance of polls and public opinion | 538 Politics podcast

538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk about the role polling can have in a democracy, from measuring issues voters consider important to providing insight into presidential elections.
September 27
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk about the role polling can have in a democracy, from measuring issues voters consider important to providing insight into presidential elections.
September 27

What does a margin of error in polling mean? | 538 Politics podcast

The 538 team discusses what you should know about the margin of error of national and state polls.
September 27
The 538 team discusses what you should know about the margin of error of national and state polls.

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