Follow the latest 538 news, videos, and analysis from ABC News.
February 4, 2025 at 10:21 PM
What do Americans think about Musk's attempts to cut government?
A 538 politics chat on Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency.
February 4, 2025 at 10:21 PM
February 3, 2025 at 5:01 PM
How qualified are Trump's cabinet picks?
The experience and career paths of President Donald Trump's Cabinet picks.
February 3, 2025 at 5:01 PM
January 31, 2025 at 1:07 AM
How Americans feel about Republicans' proposed health care cuts
Polling shows Medicaid and other federal health programs are widely popular.
January 31, 2025 at 1:07 AM
January 29, 2025 at 5:57 PM
What polling tells us about Americans' support for Trump's mass deportations
What polling tells us about Americans' support for President Donald Trump's mass deportations.
January 29, 2025 at 5:57 PM
January 28, 2025 at 6:08 PM
No, Trump can't cancel the 2028 election. But he could still weaken democracy.
Experts say Donald Trump faces fewer barriers to consolidating power in his second term.
January 28, 2025 at 6:08 PM
January 28, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Introducing 538's presidential approval polling average for Donald Trump
Introducing 538's new average of President Donald Trump's job approval rating.
January 28, 2025 at 5:23 PM
January 27, 2025 at 3:28 PM
What we saw during Trump's first week in office
President Donald Trump's first week in office focused on immigration over the economy and continued to play to his base.
January 27, 2025 at 3:28 PM
January 24, 2025 at 7:35 PM
What the polls say about Trump's executive actions
Americans support Donald Trump’s immigration policies, but not much else.
January 24, 2025 at 7:35 PM
January 24, 2025 at 5:32 PM
How Biden reshaped the judiciary
President Joe Biden's judicial appointees were the most diverse ever, but Donald Trump's remain more influential.
January 24, 2025 at 5:32 PM
January 21, 2025 at 6:06 PM
The 10 state legislative chambers that could flip in 2024
Alaska, Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are hosting competitive races for state legislative chambers in 2024.
January 21, 2025 at 6:06 PM
January 21, 2025 at 2:06 PM
How Americans are reacting to the Los Angeles wildfires
Polling shows many Americans blame climate change for the Los Angeles wildfires.
January 21, 2025 at 2:06 PM
January 17, 2025 at 9:59 PM
What can we expect from Trump's first 100 days?
He's vowed mass deportations, travel bans and expanded oil drilling.
January 17, 2025 at 9:59 PM
January 17, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Democrats aren't alone — incumbent parties have lost elections all around the world
Democrats were just one of the many incumbent parties around the globe that lost ground in 2024 elections.
January 17, 2025 at 9:43 PM
January 17, 2025 at 9:43 PM
2024 has fewer polls, but they are higher quality
How polling in 2024 compares with other recent election cycles.
January 17, 2025 at 9:43 PM
January 17, 2025 at 9:42 PM
How redistricting could play a key role in the fight to control the House in 2024
Five states redrew their district lines and the changes could impact who wins the House in the 2024 election.
January 17, 2025 at 9:42 PM
January 17, 2025 at 9:41 PM
Black and Arab American voters could swing Michigan's 2024 election
538 does its third deep dive into polling and other data in the seven swing states with Michigan, which is dependent on Black and Arab American voters.
January 17, 2025 at 9:41 PM
January 17, 2025 at 9:40 PM
Progressive organizations were forced to play defense in the 2024 primaries
Progressive candidates won most of the open primary races they ran in for U.S. Senate, House and governor in 2024.
January 17, 2025 at 9:40 PM
January 17, 2025 at 9:39 PM
Americans really love their governors
America’s governors are popular, but just how popular?
January 17, 2025 at 9:39 PM
January 17, 2025 at 9:39 PM
What 8 potential Kamala Harris VP picks bring to the table
Breaking down eight possible candidates for Kamala Harris's VP pick.
January 17, 2025 at 9:39 PM
January 17, 2025 at 9:38 PM
Why the Supreme Court tends to release unpopular decisions late in its term
The Supreme Court tends to release unpopular opinions later in its term.
January 17, 2025 at 9:38 PM
January 17, 2025 at 9:36 PM
How often every member of Congress voted with Biden in 2023
How often did Senate and House Democrats and Republicans vote with President Joe Biden in 2023?
January 17, 2025 at 9:36 PM
January 17, 2025 at 9:36 PM
Can a busy campaign schedule save Trump's GOP primary opponents?
538 tracked which GOP primary candidates are holding the most campaign events in Iowa and New Hampshire.
January 17, 2025 at 9:36 PM
January 17, 2025 at 9:33 PM
These under-the-radar 2024 elections could have a big impact
The under-the-radar elections to watch in 2024.
January 17, 2025 at 9:33 PM
January 17, 2025 at 9:33 PM
What do Americans think of the Biden impeachment inquiry?
Americans narrowly support the House opening an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, but oppose actual impeachment.
January 17, 2025 at 9:33 PM
January 17, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Who were the strongest Senate and House candidates of 2024?
538 looks at the 2024 election results to see which Senate and House candidates were the strongest and weakest.
January 17, 2025 at 5:38 PM
January 13, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Why Trump is getting more popular
Donald Trump's favorability rating and popularity are near a record high.
January 13, 2025 at 6:25 PM
1 month ago
Why the speaker vote should still worry Mike Johnson
Which Republicans initially opposed Mike Johnson for speaker of the House?
1 month ago
1 month ago
Key elections to watch in 2025
Races for governor, mayor and U.S. House special elections will be in the spotlight in 2025.
1 month ago
1 month ago
What I got wrong in 2024
Senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich roasts his predictions from 2024.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Jimmy Carter was ahead of his time on energy (and craft brewing)
Jimmy Carter's presidency in four charts.
1 month ago
1 month ago
How will Jimmy Carter be remembered?
538 analysts discuss President Jimmy Carter's legacy.
1 month ago
1 month ago
26 charts that helped explain 2024 in politics
The best charts 538 made in 2024.
1 month ago
2 months ago
Why most of Trump's Cabinet picks will get confirmed by the Senate
Why most of Donald Trump's Cabinet picks will probably be confirmed.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Why abortion didn't lead Democrats to victory in the 2024 election
Why abortion didn't lead to a Democratic win in the 2024 election.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Our 2024 Superlatives | 538 politics podcast
On this end-of-2024 installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew makes a yearbook and assigns superlatives.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Americans are unhappy with the state of health care and insurance
538's polling column about the state of health care, voters' trust in the 2024 election results and President Joe Biden's approval rating.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Where have all the Democrats gone?
Which counties swung right in the 2024 election?
2 months ago
2 months ago
After the 2024 election, Democrats are at a steep disadvantage in the Senate
Why it's hard for Democrats to win elections for U.S. Senate control.
2 months ago
2 months ago
America's swing to the right in 2024 was wide, if not always deep
Trump gained ground in every state and most counties in the 2024 election compared to 2020.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Trump's Cabinet woes are back, earlier than ever
President-elect Donald Trump could break the record for most failed Cabinet nominations to start a term.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Why Democrats now support the Hunter Biden pardon
538's polling column about President Joe Biden's pardon of his son, Sarah McBride's favorability and the future of America.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Has the number of women in Congress hit a ceiling?
Neither party made significant gains in 2024, and Republican women still lag behind.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Why Republicans start out as favorites in the 2026 Senate elections
Democrats need to flip four Senate seats in 2026 to reclaim a majority, but have few clear targets.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Republicans won the House. Now comes the hard part.
As of Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. Eastern, ABC News is reporting that Republicans have won at least 218 seats in the next House and Democrats have won at least 208.
2 months ago
2 months ago
The 2024 presidential election was close, not a landslide
Donald Trump's close win over Kamala Harris in the 2024 election hasn't stopped him from claiming a mandate.
2 months ago
2 months ago
The congressional bathroom ban is the latest transgender policy battle
538's polling column about Republicans' transgender bathroom bans, Trump's transition, trust in polls and Thanksgiving plans.
2 months ago
2 months ago
How pollsters' methodology may have changed
538’s Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik weigh in on whether pollsters changed their strategy in the last election cycle.
2 months ago
2 months ago
What the 2024 election tells us about past elections
538’s Galen Druke and the panel discuss what conclusions can be drawn from the 2024 presidential election and if it can tell us more about the 2016 and 2020 elections.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Gaetz is out. Will Trump's other Cabinet picks be confirmed?
Matt Gaetz has withdrawn, but will other Trump Cabinet nominees have trouble with confirmation?
2 months ago
3 months ago
What the gender gap tells us about Trump's win
Donald Trump's appeals to young men and men of color in the 2024 election campaign may have paid off.
3 months ago